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Tonight the Fed rate hike is almost certain; the market is closely watching Waller's remarks: will a signal of continued rate hikes be released?

What the market truly cares about is: the dot plot will reveal how many more rate hikes are expected this year, and whether Waller will send signals of ongoing tightening. Citi predicts this will be a “dovish hike”; Goldman Sachs bluntly states that this rate hike lacks sufficient economic basis; Standard Chartered believes the hike itself is a policy mistake. If there’s a signal of aggressive consecutive hikes, it could trigger market turmoil; the most dangerous tail risk is an unexpected pause, which could spark a credibility crisis and sharp equity sell-off.

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Tonight, a "dovish rate hike"?

The Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates tonight, but the key issue is "what will be said after the hike." Citi characterizes this move as a "fine-tuning" adjustment, suggesting there is no inevitable future rate hike, yet warns that if Chairman Powell does not provide clear forward guidance, it will trigger significant market volatility. Goldman Sachs bluntly stated that there is insufficient economic foundation for this rate hike, with inflation being merely a one-off factor, and expects this to be a "signal-less rate hike."

Firm Belief in Fed Rate Hike Tonight! US Bond Market Shows "Extreme Short Positions"

Wall Street giants’ trading operations show a tale of two extremes: JPMorgan (JPM.US) expects a surge in Q3 performance, while Bank of America (BAC.US) warns of a slowdown

JPMorgan predicts that trading and investment banking income will see double-digit growth in Q3, triggering a rebound in its stock price. Previously, Bank of America warned of flat revenue due to a pullback in financing, leading to a sell-off in the sector.

Stablecoin growth could boost dollar dominance, US Treasury demand: BoE official

Sector Update: Financial Stocks Decline Premarket Tuesday

Reportedly, the Bank of England plans to pause long-term bond sales, as the most aggressive "balance sheet reducer" in the global bond storm hits the brakes

Selling once will lose half; the Bank of England has hit the brakes on quantitative tightening.

Citigroup Expects Mid-Single-Digit Markets Revenue Growth in Q3

Euro advances against Japanese Yen ahead of ZEW Survey data

Liquidity Unconcerned? The Federal Reserve Hits 'Pause' Again, Ceasing Reserve Management Bond Purchases Until Mid-October

The Federal Reserve announced on Monday that it will not conduct short-term Treasury bond purchases for reserve management purposes in the next phase for the second consecutive month, indicating that policymakers are satisfied with the level of bank reserves in the financial system.

The Federal Reserve pauses RMP bond purchases for the second consecutive month, with bank reserves remaining in an ample range.

The Federal Reserve announced that during the next monthly cycle ending on October 14, the New York Fed's Open Market Operations Department will not conduct any U.S. Treasury purchases for Reserve Management Purposes (RMP). During this period, approximately $15.6 billion in reinvestment purchase operations will be executed. As of September 9, the U.S. banking reserve balance stood at $3.04 trillion, higher than the year-to-date average level of $3.01 trillion.

Bank of America plunges 6%! CEO says Q3 trading revenue is flat and investment banking income falls short of expectations

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan stated that the bank's trading revenue this quarter will be "relatively flat" compared to the third quarter last year, in contrast to the surge in revenue experienced on Wall Street during the first half of this year. He also expects investment banking fees to be between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion, falling short of the market's expectation of nearly $2 billion.

Unafraid of oil prices, long-term debt, and rate hikes! Multiple Wall Street institutions remain bullish on US stocks; Yardeni downplays concerns over AI slowdown

Most Wall Street strategists still believe that as long as the pace of interest rate hikes is moderate, corporate earnings remain strong, and inflation does not become unanchored, the US stock market bull run is expected to continue.

10-year US Treasury yields approach 5%, US stocks pull back: Goldman Sachs remains bullish against the trend—an “insurance-rate hike” or the restart of the tightening cycle?

This week, the biggest suspense in the Federal Reserve meeting may no longer be whether there will be a rate hike.

Goldman Sachs Also Changes Its Tune: The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates Next Week!

Goldman Sachs has shifted from predicting a rate hold to betting on a 25 basis point hike next week, stating that this change is not due to particularly bad inflation data—the August CPI was not perfect, but it wasn’t alarming either. The real key is that hawkish comments from Waller have already shaped market expectations: "If the inflation data isn’t perfect, there will be a rate hike." If the Federal Reserve backs down now, its credibility will suffer a serious blow and long-term interest rates could react sharply and immediately.

After CPI, Investment Banks "Tear Up Reports": No Rate Hike Faction "Surrenders" This Year, Hawks Bet on Three Hikes by January Next Year

TD Securities has shifted to a more hawkish outlook, changing its forecast from no rate hikes for the year to three increases by January next year. JP Morgan now expects rate hikes in September and December, with a pause in October. MUFG expects a pause after a September hike, with the highest probability (60%) of another hike in December. Citigroup expects a rate hike in September, followed by no changes, and then rate cuts resuming in June next year.

UniCredit seeks infrastructure partner for crypto trading, custody: Report

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MoneyGram Launches Stablecoin Card in Colombia, Bringing Crypto Payments to 60M Users

With the US midterm elections approaching, Wall Street bets on a divided Congress—will markets see a mild respite?

As the U.S. midterm elections approach, Wall Street is generally betting on a "divided Congress" scenario, with the Democratic Party taking back the House of Representatives and the Republican Party retaining the Senate. This is expected to limit radical policies and reduce uncertainty. Historical data shows that since 1950, when a divided Congress occurred under a Republican president, the average annual gain of U.S. stocks was 13.7%, higher than the 8.3% and 4.9% gains when either the Republican or Democratic Party controlled Congress alone. If the election results deviate from expectations, the market may still experience significant volatility.

European Blockchain Convention 2026: Programme and -15% Off Your Ticket

Market Chatter: Stratolaunch Readying US Initial Public Offering to Raise Up To $500 Million

Besson successfully "raided" the yen, but why is he unable to tame US Treasuries?

Market Chatter: Citigroup's Private Bank Hires Radzinski From Bank Of America

DBS and Citi Test Tokenized Deposits in Instant Cross-Border Payment System

U.S. Bank Moves Real Dollars on a Public Chain, But With a Kill Switch

Zankore Signs $3.1 Billion Loan Deal to Finance Nvidia GPU Deployment at AI Factory in Indonesia

Market Chatter: Blackstone Seeks to Sell ZO Skin Health for $2 Billion

Hedge funds aggressively go long on the yen: Betting on breaking above 150 by year-end, aiming directly for 140

Hedge funds are betting that USD/JPY will fall below 150 by the end of the year.