Guangda Futures 1013 Gold Commentary: Federal Reserve officials' hawkish remarks put pressure on gold prices, leading to a decline

　　On October 12, COMEX gold fluctuated and fell, closing at $4,195.9/ounce, a decline of 0.48%. The domestic SHFE gold night session opened low and trended lower, dropping to around the 900-point mark, closing at 902.50 yuan/gram, down 0.58%.

　　On the macroeconomic front, US pending home sales in September fell 4% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month drop in more than three years, and hitting the lowest level since 2014; listed housing supply rose to the highest level since March 2020. Federal Reserve voting member Harker stated that inflationary pressures have spread beyond the energy sector, with AI investment and tariffs driving up costs; to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched in the economy, the Fed should consider faster and more frequent small adjustments to interest rates, rather than waiting for inflationary pressures to accumulate before taking more significant action. Affected by the hawkish remarks, gold prices came under pressure overnight.

　　On the geopolitical front, according to Xinhua News Agency, the Houthi armed group launched four military actions targeting airports and energy facilities inside Saudi Arabia within 24 hours; Saudi Arabia is facing an escalating crisis in the Yemen conflict. In theory, the rapidly declining probability of a Fed rate hike in October should push gold prices higher, but in reality, gold prices remain volatile at low levels, which may be related to the consistently high yields on long-term US Treasury bonds. For the market, there are two contradictory factors: on one hand, there are concerns about the risk of a loss of control over long-term US bond yields, but on the other hand, this also boosts the appeal of US dollar assets. Overall, expectations of weakening economic data limit the short-term downside for precious metals, but high long-term interest rates, rate hike expectations, and a strong US dollar still pose valuation constraints, so a cautious outlook is still advisable.

　　Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

　　Written by: Shiyueming

　　Professional qualification: F03097365

　　Trading consultation qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan