The Hormuz standoff triggers a European gas crisis: inventories at record lows, Norway suspends supplies—how will the energy crisis be resolved?
智通财经2026/08/11 09:01- The European natural gas market underwent range-bound consolidation on Tuesday, following a surge of over 10% in the previous trading session, mainly due to unresolved tensions in the Middle East and renewed uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- On Monday, U.S. leaders responded firmly to Iran’s peace agreement terms, insisting on compensation for casualties from past conflicts. This move dimmed hopes for the near-term resumption of navigation through the key waterway that carries 20% of global oil shipments, keeping market concerns elevated.
- The near-month Dutch TTF contract remained stable around €60 per megawatt hour, still close to late July highs. The near-month UK contract also fluctuated narrowly. Institutional analysts pointed out that geopolitical premiums, together with bullish expectations for long-term fundamentals, are jointly supporting the market.
- There is yet another supply-side variable: maintenance at Norway’s Ormen Lange gas field has been significantly extended to February 2027, a delay of over a year compared to previous reports. This is expected to cut more than 1 billion cubic meters of winter supply to Europe, further straining an already fragile supply-demand balance.
- Currently, EU gas storage is only about 59% full, marking the lowest level for this time of year on record and over 20% below the five-year average. The gap to the winter target of 80%–90% remains significant. Although northwest Europe is experiencing a brief warm spell, institutions warn this may be the calm before a “perfect storm.”
- The benchmark contract in the carbon market edged lower. The market is closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of Norway’s maintenance on the pace of subsequent gas injections. Any supply disruptions could magnify price volatility ahead of winter.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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