South Africa's Midterm Budget: Deficit Narrows, Growth Forecast Downgraded
智通财经2026/10/21 12:35Show original
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- The South African Treasury announced that the budget deficit for the 2025/26 fiscal year will be approximately 328 billion rand, equivalent to about 4.2% of GDP.
- The Treasury has allocated around 10 billion rand for two months of additional fuel tax relief.
- The government has announced a principles-based fiscal anchor proposal, with related legislation to be submitted to Parliament in 2027.
- The consolidated budget deficit for the 2026/27 fiscal year is projected to be around 3.9% of GDP, lower than the previous forecast of 4.0%. For the 2027/28 fiscal year, it is expected to be around 3.5%, unchanged from prior estimates.
- The economic growth forecast has been lowered, with GDP growth in 2026 now expected to be about 1.2% (previously 1.6%), around 1.6% in 2027, and approximately 1.8% in 2028.
- Total debt for 2026/27 is expected to be approximately 78.2% of GDP, higher than the February forecast of about 77.3%.
- Inflation is projected to return to the 3% target level by 2029.
- Follow-up attention will focus on the progress of fiscal anchor legislation, the sustainability of the debt path, and the pressure from weak growth on fiscal revenue and rating expectations.
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