Gulf oil exports rebound, freight rates and inventories support oil prices

⑴ According to institutional monitoring, as of the week ending October 18, Middle East oil exports have exceeded pre-war levels, and crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf region are showing signs of recovery. ⑵ Despite ongoing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping system protected by the United States has ensured the passage of oil tankers, providing significant support for the rebound in exports. ⑶ However, oil prices remain high, mainly due to a sharp increase in shipping costs, tightening inventories, and traders’ concerns about further escalation of the situation. ⑷ Overall, the recovery of export volumes has not fully alleviated market tensions. The transportation risk premium and the low inventory pattern remain the main drivers of prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to the safety of passage through the strait and changes in inventory levels.