为期两周的停火协议最终是否会演变成永久停火？ 260409

注：本文原发于深度星球东八区4月8日的内容，部分内容已删减，完整版可在文末获取。

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Market reaction to the ceasefire headline is exceedingly positive, just as I warned before the market closed yesterday. Note that CL reversed exactly at the multi-year resistance I gave out when the war started. CL is now sitting on a very important support. Despite the impact of the ceasefire deal, CL remains in a bull trend so long as it stays above 94. 

正如我在昨日收盘前所提示的那样，市场对停火头条新闻的反应极其积极。请注意，WTI原油（CL）正好在我于开战时给出的多年阻力位处发生了反转。目前CL正处于一个非常重要的支撑位上。尽管受到停火协议的冲击，但只要CL维持在94上方，就依然处于多头趋势中。

SPX is set to open around 6.8K, which is a very important pivot to reclaim if it aims to head higher. NDX is set to backtest the major trendline from below as well. DXY below 99 and US 2Y yields below 3.8% are both supportive of equities and gold. 

标普500指数（SPX）预计将在6.8K附近开盘，如果大盘想要继续上攻，这是一个必须收复的关键枢轴位。纳斯达克100指数（NDX）也准备从下方反抽测试关键趋势线。美元指数（DXY）低于99，以及美国2年期国债收益率低于3.8%，这两者均对股市和黄金构成支撑。

Whether this two-week ceasefire turns into a permanent ceasefire or atwo-day ceasefire remains unknown. Price action will be telling: a break above SPX = 6.8K and NDX = 25.1K, coupled with DXY below 99 and CL below 94, would suggest a genuine will to cease fire. If price struggles to break through, it may suggest otherwise.

这份为期两周的停火协议最终会演变成永久停火，还是仅仅是一场“两日停火”，目前仍是未知数。价格行为将给出答案：如果SPX向上突破6.8K、NDX突破25.1K，同时伴随DXY跌破99、CL跌破94，这将表明达成停火的真实意愿。如果价格迟迟无法实现突破，则可能暗示情况恰恰相反。

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