Elon Musk continues to short neocloud

October 13: Chamath posted a chart showing a 15% yield on CRWV bonds. Musk replied with just one word: "Ouch."October 14: CRWV fell 15.5% in a single day, NBIS fell 10%, $IREN fell 10%. On the same day, Gartner warned that by 2030, 80% of new cloud service providers could disappear.October 15: CRWV credit default swaps rose to a record level of over 1,100 basis points. The market is pricing in a probability of more than 60% for a default within the next 5 years.October 16: Bonds fell below 80% of face value, entering distressed territory. CRWV dropped another 12%, with its stock price falling about 25% for the week.October 19: Despite this, Goldman Sachs still upgraded CRWV to a buy rating.October 22: The $3.5 billion NBIS raised from Citigroup will mature in one year.October 25: Musk stated that new cloud service providers will undergo consolidation. He said that any company without actual revenue outside of AI data centers can no longer raise funds from the debt market. He mentioned that SpaceX has just completed a $40 billion debt financing round to purchase GPUs because the company has revenue from its Starlink and launch businesses.CRWV fell 38% in a month, NBIS fell 33%. The deal between Anthropic and SpaceXAI could be worth up to $84.5 billion by 2029.