Changes in the transportation patterns in the Strait of Hormuz: High oil prices coexist with high traffic.

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智通财经2026/10/23 13:06

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Despite a recent increase in attacks on oil tankers near the strait, Middle Eastern crude oil exports have now exceeded pre-war levels. As of the week ending October 18, the region's oil flow (including through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes) averaged over 24 million barrels per day, higher than the pre-war figure of 23.3 million barrels.
However, there is a need to distinguish between the total export volume from the Persian Gulf and the flow directly passing through the strait. Preliminary data shows that during the same period, the flow through the Strait of Hormuz (including offshore transshipment near Oman) was about 14 million barrels per day, equivalent to 82% of pre-war levels. While passage through the strait remains significantly disrupted, it is no longer paralyzed.
The current oil price includes a risk premium of around $20 to $30 per barrel. Although crude oil is moving in large volumes, prices remain high. Institutions describe a "high-volume, high-cost" balance: producers use short-haul tankers for transshipment outside the strait, forming an alternative transport system. The volume is approaching normal, but logistics remain far from smooth.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increased pipeline usage to transport crude oil to terminals outside the strait. In September, about 40% of non-Iranian Persian Gulf export crude bypassed the Strait of Hormuz, compared to just 17% before the war. The adjustment in energy trade patterns means more output does not need to be directly exposed to attack risks.
Inside the strait, operators have established a short-haul transport system: vessels turn off their identification systems to cross the strait and transship cargo off the coast of Oman. The same fleet of ships makes multiple roundtrips in high-risk areas, gradually forming a specialized fleet adapted to wartime conditions. External military escorts have played a role in this process.
Meanwhile, the maritime blockade has restricted Iran's own oil sales, which is the reverse of its initial "if we cannot export, we will block our neighbors’ exports" strategy. Now, neighboring countries have largely succeeded in bypassing most of the blockade.
Some analysts believe that as panic fades, the market will gain a deeper understanding of the restrictions on passage through the strait, and the likelihood of future oil price spikes will decrease. Others caution that if attacks continue to escalate without visible effect, the situation might face two scenarios: a comprehensive concession, or a shift toward deploying ground troops in neighboring countries, leading to significant escalation of the conflict.
From a longer-term perspective, each day of disrupted passage through the strait accelerates the implementation of alternative solutions. Major Asian buyers have reduced their crude oil imports, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are maximizing use of existing pipelines and speeding up construction of new infrastructure, and International Energy Agency partner countries are using strategic petroleum reserves to buffer the impact. Future focus should be on the maturity of alternative transport systems, changes in the intensity of attacks, and the pace of strategic reserve releases.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Changes in the transportation patterns in the Strait of Hormuz: High oil prices coexist with high traffic.

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