The commercialization process of nuclear power is progressing slower than expected; Barclays is bearish on NuScale Power (SMR.US)

According to Golden Ten Data APP, Barclays has downgraded NuScale Power (SMR.US), a provider of small modular reactor technology, from "Hold" to "Underweight" with a target price of $5, due to risks arising from key commercialization contracts not being finalized for an extended period.

Barclays analyst Christine Cho believes that NuScale's investment logic depends on commercialization milestones, and the slower-than-expected achievement of these milestones increases the company's execution risk.

In her report, Cho pointed out that what is most noteworthy is that the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and ENTRA1 Energy have not yet announced a final Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) to support a plan to deploy 6 gigawatts using NuScale's small modular reactor technology. This increases the risk that negotiations could extend until 2027.

Although NuScale continues to make progress on the supply chain, including the manufacture of long-lead components and the first production of boron oxide core blocks, Cho believes that this progress is "more like a prerequisite than a milestone that determines the project." Without binding customer agreements, the analyst thinks "it remains uncertain when NuScale can turn design and supply chain into funded projects, construction activities, and ultimately commercial deployment."

Meanwhile, Cho maintains an "Overweight" rating on Oklo (OKLO.US), stating that its Groves project in Texas "demonstrates real execution capability," with the project moving from a September 2025 groundbreaking to a planned first criticality in August 2026. First criticality usually refers to when a nuclear reactor achieves a sustained chain reaction and is an important milestone in the commissioning phase of a nuclear power project. Additionally, Groves-2 Forge provides a pathway for Oklo to build a larger-scale, vertically integrated commercial isotope platform.

NuScale closed down 1.93% on Tuesday at $5.58, after hitting a 52-week low of $5.33 during the session. The stock has fallen more than 60% so far this year.