The Roadster showcases SpaceX's strength! Morgan Stanley: Most of the BOM value comes from SpaceX, with technological integration far exceeding expectations

The Texas launch show of Tesla Roadster offered the world not just a flying car, but also a concentrated display of SpaceX’s technological prowess.

According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley highlighted in its latest report that this launch event underscored the increasingly close synergy between Tesla and SpaceX. The firm reiterated its Overweight rating for SpaceX and a target price of $300, which is more than double the current share price of around $148.62.

The report points out that most of the value in the Roadster’s Bill of Materials (BOM) comes from SpaceX, indicating a level of technological integration between the two companies far beyond market expectations. At the same time, Morgan Stanley sees fundamental momentum in SpaceX’s three major business lines—space, connectivity, and enterprise AI—continuing to strengthen, with a notably more optimistic outlook following Q2 results.

On the valuation front, Morgan Stanley directly states that the current share price is significantly undervalued. Based on a share price of around $150, the market is only implying a sales multiple for SpaceX’s enterprise AI division of roughly 2x the projected 2028 figures—comparable to, or even lower than, neocloud companies. The report further notes that the unlocking of stocks has not had the anticipated downward pressure on the share price, providing investors with an opportunity to reassess the stock.

Behind the Roadster: The Cross-Industry Penetration of SpaceX Technology

The core highlight of the Roadster launch is the integration of electric-powered cold gas thruster technology. Morgan Stanley’s report makes it clear that the majority of the value in this model’s BOM is sourced from SpaceX, signifying a deepening relationship between Tesla and SpaceX.

Adam Jonas raises a series of questions for investors to ponder: besides automotive, what other potential applications exist for electric-powered cold gas thruster technology? What are its potential uses in the defense sector? He draws an analogy to the “Kitty Hawk moment,” noting that when electricity and automobiles first emerged, the prevailing sentiment was “candles and horses are good enough”—implying that the market may be underestimating the historic significance of this technology.

The report also particularly mentions that SpaceX abruptly announced the date of its Q3 earnings report, giving only two business days’ notice—a rare move that caught Morgan Stanley’s attention. Adam Jonas notes that such a situation has never been seen before, suggesting it may herald significant upcoming disclosures.

AI Computing Power: Each Additional 1GW Could Add $27 to Share Price

Morgan Stanley provides a clear quantitative framework for valuing SpaceX’s enterprise AI business. According to the report, under the assumptions of $50 per watt, a 70% incremental profit margin, and a 10x EBITDA multiple, each additional 1GW of internal computing power could theoretically add about $27 to SpaceX’s share price—representing roughly 18% of the current share price.

Morgan Stanley currently forecasts SpaceX will achieve 4.9GW of AI computing power in fiscal 2027, while the company’s own goal is “close to 10GW.” The gap between the two suggests that if SpaceX meets its target, the upside for the share price could far exceed Morgan Stanley’s baseline projection.

For the $300 target price, Morgan Stanley uses a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation: enterprise AI business contributes $165, connectivity business (mainly Starlink) contributes $118, space division contributes $8, and X and Grok businesses contribute $8. The valuation uses 2040 as the terminal year and discounts to June 30, 2027, applying a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 11.2% and a 50% execution risk discount to the enterprise AI valuation.

Fundamental Momentum Continuing to Strengthen—Upside Risks Outweigh Downside

Morgan Stanley lists several potential upside catalysts in its report, including accelerated Starship reusability progress, faster growth in Starlink capacity, expansion of enterprise direct sales and cloud computing customers, accelerated annual recurring revenue (ARR) for Cursor, and a reduction in cost and electrification time for AI infrastructure.

On downside risks, the report warns of potential factors such as slower Starship reusability, Starlink user growth below expectations, weaker monetization of enterprise AI, rising unit capital expenditures for computing power, longer powering-up cycles, increased financing needs leading to equity dilution, and regulatory approval delays.

Since initiating coverage on SpaceX in July this year with an Overweight rating and $300 target price, Morgan Stanley has continued to publish in-depth reports across various aspects—including Starship flight tests, the Louisiana launch complex construction, and AI strategic layouts—maintaining a strongly consistent optimistic view on SpaceX’s long-term investment thesis.