Eurozone inflation and French bond market influence policy trajectory

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智通财经2026/10/16 12:36

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ING Bank pointed out that today’s euro area data is expected to confirm a 3.8% year-on-year increase in the September Consumer Price Index, significantly above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
The market is still digesting the hawkish inflation forecast from the European Central Bank’s September press conference, which is a key driving factor for market expectations that the central bank will further tighten by nearly 75 basis points.
However, ING’s team expects the European Central Bank will only raise rates once more, with the performance of the French bond market largely determining whether further tightening will be needed thereafter.
EUR/USD has been boosted this week by volatility in U.S. artificial intelligence stocks, and may now enter a decent consolidation phase.
ING believes this move could push EUR/USD up to the 1.1340–1.1350 region.
However, if the U.S. stock market undergoes a further correction, do not expect EUR/USD to be the biggest winner.
According to ING, USD/CHF moving lower will likely take the lead under such circumstances.
Subsequent attention should focus on the final euro area inflation reading, changes in the French bond yield spread, and guidance from European Central Bank officials on rate hike expectations.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Eurozone inflation and French bond market influence policy trajectory

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