Trump’s tariff remarks disturb the oil market, new developments emerge in Iran sanctions and shadow fleet

⑴ Trump's tariff remarks have triggered market concerns, with traders assessing their potential impact on global energy trade flows. ⑵ According to institutional sources, the US is considering easing sanctions on certain shadow fleet vessels transporting Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil, aiming to alleviate global freight cost pressures. ⑶ However, this proposal faces multiple practical obstacles, including the possibility of funds flowing to entities linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran. ⑷ Most of the vessels involved are quite old, making it difficult to pass port safety inspections and offering limited opportunity for direct crude oil loading at ports. ⑸ If ship-to-ship transfers are used, compliant tankers may therefore be placed on watchlists by tracking systems, entailing significant risk. ⑹ The vessels in question have already been blacklisted by several sanctioning authorities, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Ukraine, and individual countries can still take their own actions. ⑺ France recently took similar measures, indicating that even if the US relaxes restrictions, other jurisdictions may not necessarily follow suit. ⑻ The shadow fleet itself is unlikely to be a solution, but the experience and knowledge of its crews in relevant oil transport networks could prove to be a more valuable entry point. ⑼ Especially against the backdrop of ongoing tanker disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, crew information and operational experience may become key levers in constraining the room for the shadow fleet. ⑽ Market sentiment is therefore cautious, as the tug-of-war between high freight costs and sanction enforcement remains an important variable affecting the short-term direction of the oil market. ⑾ Going forward, it will be important to watch whether the US translates this consideration into actual policy and whether other sanctioning authorities adjust their positions in tandem.