CryptoQuant’s 3 charts keeping Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ thesis valid

Bitcoin (BTC) can still preserve its traditionally strong October performance, as onchain data points to a local BTC price bottom forming.

Key points:

• Onchain data suggested that Bitcoin could still end October strong, following historical patterns. 
• Bitcoin exchange reserves remained 1.7% lower than in mid-September, while whales avoided selling.
• Apparent demand neared a transition to positive readings for the second time in 2026.

BTC price analysis flags “potential bottom” signals

New analysis published on crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant Monday show onchain conditions in a state of “cautious optimism.” 

Bitcoin continues to weather mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, which include 24-year highs in US bond yields, rising oil prices and cooling capital inflows to exchange-traded products. These conditions have dampened optimism over Bitcoin delivering a strong performance in October.

“Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging,” CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote.

Since the start of October, conditions have changed to increasingly benefit crypto and risk assets. XWIN points to cooling expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve into 2027, boosting the odds of inflows improving. At the same time, markets expect more clarity over the US domestic political situation after the approaching Midterm Elections.

“Less political uncertainty after the vote could help investors reassess allocations,” XWIN continued.

Bitcoin exchange reserves, apparent demand and whale holdings give XWIN reasons to believe that October’s local low may have already occurred.

The BTC supply on exchanges has fallen from 2.726 million on Sept. 20 to 2.68 million as of Tuesday, a decrease of 1.7%, despite a modest increase over the past week.

Bitcoin exchange BTC reserves. Source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, the combined holdings owned by large-volume investors, or whales, remain above 3 million BTC. The cohort’s urge to reduce exposure has survived BTC/USD dropping from $87,000 on Oct. 2 to near $80,000 on Oct. 8.

Bitcoin whale holdings (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin demand data stays bullish in October

Apparent demand, a measure that compares newly mined BTC with changes in dormant supply, shows overall demand remains supportive.

Related: Bitcoin keeps up pressure on $84K as US stocks skirt Korea tech sell-off

The metric has been negative throughout 2026, with a brief period of positive 30-day readings in the second half of August. Since then, demand has been negative, but has recovered to near-neutral levels as of this week.

“These developments suggest conditions for a bottom are improving. Confirmation requires sustained ETF inflows, stronger US spot buying and continued demand recovery,” XWIN said. 

“‘Uptober’ need not mean uninterrupted gains: a correction can build the foundation for the next advance.”

Bitcoin apparent demand growth. Source: CryptoQuant

This week, crypto asset manager Bitwise said that Q3 onchain data pointed to “crypto spring” after historically significant performance. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, meanwhile, announced what he saw as the start of a new crypto bull market in late August, calling the bear market “over.”