SpaceX (SPCX.US) Eyes Mid-band Spectrum, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) Spectrum Moat Faces Threat

According to Zhicheng Finance APP, telecom analyst Roger Entner stated that if SpaceX (SPCX.US) acquires spectrum related to Ligado and Viasat and wins licenses in the FCC's proposed auction, Starlink could control a "vast" mid-band spectrum block. This assessment has brought AST SpaceMobile's (ASTS.US) spectrum strategy back under scrutiny.

ASTS closed up nearly 1% at $51.46 on Monday, slightly stabilizing after a cumulative 16% drop over the previous two trading days. The sell-off began after SpaceX agreed last week to acquire private equity firm Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, refocusing attention on the battle for spectrum to connect satellites directly to mobile phones.

Entner stated on X that major telecom operators are likely to challenge the FCC’s plan to auction 25 MHz of spectrum. He said: "Each major operator could bid for these licenses, either offensively or defensively." His broader vision centers on Ligado and Viasat—"If Elon Musk acquires Ligado and Viasat and secures the new spectrum, Starlink could potentially control a vast mid-band spectrum block for terrestrial business and direct-to-device (D2D) services."

FCC plans to auction 25 MHz, right next to AST's spectrum

The FCC is seeking comments on auctioning the 1675-1695 MHz and 2020-2025 MHz bands, totaling 25 MHz. According to the agency’s documents, the proposed plan includes three unpaired blocks: Block A (1675-1685 MHz), Block B (1685-1695 MHz), and Block C (2020-2025 MHz), allowing flexible use for terrestrial wireless, D2D, or a mix of both. The item will be voted on at the public meeting on October 29, but the final rules and auction date have not yet been set.

The same agenda also includes a major overhaul of the “Supplemental Coverage from Space” (SCS) framework—to release an additional 482 MHz of licensed spectrum for SCS and lower regulatory barriers for transactions and secondary market transfers; as well as removing restrictions on drones in the 800 MHz cellular band, releasing 50 MHz of low-frequency spectrum.

These bands are adjacent to the AWS-4, Ligado, and Viasat related spectrum. This is particularly sensitive for AST: According to the 2025 term sheet, AST will obtain long-term rights to use up to 40 MHz of Ligado’s L-band spectrum in the US and Canada, plus 5 MHz in the 1670-1675 MHz band—the latter being right next to the lower edge of the spectrum the FCC plans to auction.

The agreement between AST SpaceMobile and Ligado also includes consideration: Ligado will receive warrants convertible into AST shares (within 12 months, valued at approximately $120 million), as well as at least $80 million annually in cash payments under a lease term of at least 80 years. According to AST's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), at the time of closing, AST must pay Ligado approximately $550 million, subject to regulatory approval and other conditions. Ligado filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January 2025—its plan to use the L-band for terrestrial 5G networks had stalled due to GPS interference disputes. Under the restructuring plan, its debt will be reduced from $8.6 billion to about $1.2 billion, while the company is still pursuing a $40 billion lawsuit against the U.S. government.

Viasat is mentioned because, after acquiring Inmarsat in 2023, it inherited Inmarsat’s L-band and S-band mobile satellite spectrum and global market access. Viasat is also a creditor of Ligado (Ligado owes payment obligations to Inmarsat); Viasat previously planned to cooperate with Ligado on satellite-to-phone services.

The divergence between AST and SpaceXin their approaches

The core logic behind this competition lies in the differing paths of AST and SpaceX. AST relies on partnerships with operators to connect satellites with regular mobile phones: AT&T has signed a final commercial agreement with AST for space-based cellular broadband, and Verizon has signed its own direct-to-device cellular service deal; according to Ticker Report, TELUS and AST have completed the first Canadian cellular-to-satellite network integration test. Currently, T-Mobile (TMUS.US) is using SpaceX’s Starlink.

SpaceX, on the other hand, is building a more direct mobile network model—integrating satellites, spectrum, and terrestrial infrastructure. Last week’s two moves clarified this path: On October 7, the FCC approved its second-generation Starlink Mobile constellation application, allowing the launch of up to 15,000 satellites optimized for the 2 GHz spectrum (operating in very low-Earth orbit, aimed at increasing bandwidth and reducing latency). On October 8, SpaceX announced a final agreement with Grain Management to acquire 100% interest in its nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, including up to 14 MHz of paired low-band spectrum. The price was not disclosed, but sources suggest it was about $8 billion in cash; the deal still requires FCC approval.

Low-band penetration is exactly the previous weak point of Starlink—while the current 2 GHz mid-band offers high bandwidth, its wall-penetrating ability is weak. Musk called the deal a “very big event” on X, and SpaceX stated on its official blog that this “premium low-band spectrum solves one of the remaining key technical gaps, enabling Starlink Mobile to become a major mobile operator in the United States.”

After the news broke, share prices of T-Mobile, Verizon (VZ.US), and AT&T (T.US) each fell by about 6% in after-hours trading on October 8. Verizon spokesperson Rich Young responded: “A company can own a lot of spectrum, but if they don’t have the network to use it, it doesn’t matter. That’s just radio waves in the air.” According to International Finance News, the three operators set up a joint satellite venture in May this year, widely believed to be aimed at defending against SpaceX.

How is the market pricing this?

ASTS’s volatility itself indicates market unease. According to FinanceFeeds, the stock fell 6.1% during regular trading on October 8, and dropped a further 4% in after-hours trading after the SpaceX-Grain deal was announced; on October 9, it fell as low as $47.57 during the session (down 13.7% from the previous close of $56.93). By October 12, the closing price was $51.46, up 0.97%, but still down 29% for the year; its 52-week range is $47.57 to $133.86, with the current price near the lower edge of the range.

Retail sentiment is also bearish: Users on Stocktwits criticize ASTS for having no commercial revenue or profit, and for issuing new shares despite previously promising not to; another user called it a typical pump-and-dump scheme.

According to StockAnalysis data, AST’s trailing twelve-month revenue was $115.3 million (up about 2,257% year-on-year), with a net loss of $619 million and a cash balance of $2.29 billion; 2026 revenue guidance is $150-200 million, with an order backlog of about $1.3 billion. The next earnings report is scheduled for November 9.

Selling-side opinions are clearly divided. On October 12, Deutsche Bank upgraded ASTS to Buy with a price target of $93, believing that the sell-off related to SpaceX is a misjudgment, and highlighting the value and catalyst provided by spectrum; it also believes T-Mobile might shift its direct-to-device partnership from Starlink to AST. On the other hand, B. Riley Securities downgraded ASTS to Neutral on October 2, with a target price reduced from $85 to $65. According to StockAnalysis, the consensus target price for AST is about $78.

The market also lacks consensus regarding SpaceX’s path. ARK Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney believes that the spectrum deal and satellite authorization give Starlink Mobile “a credible path to becoming a full mobile operator, not just a backup for coverage blind spots.” The low-band can improve indoor coverage, and terrestrial radios and small cells associated with Starlink’s antenna infrastructure can supplement capacity.

Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson, however, thinks that SpaceX is still far from having the necessary conditions to compete head-to-head with the Big Three, and its viable path remains obtaining Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) agreements from the major carriers. New Street Research points out that SpaceX will still “significantly lag behind” in low-band spectrum, and the new low-band spectrum is not currently compatible with its first and second generation direct-to-device satellites. Walt Piecyk of LightShed Partners judges that the low-band requires massive antennas, unsuitable for mass-produced satellites, so this 800 MHz spectrum is more likely to become the “underlay layer” for its terrestrial network rather than uplink to satellites.