Strategy shareholders face dilution drag despite brighter bitcoin forecasts, TD Cowen says
TD Cowen raised its bitcoin forecasts but kept its $260 price target on Strategy (MSTR) unchanged, saying dilution and the company's financial obligations will likely limit upside for its shareholders.
Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete maintained their Buy rating, arguing that higher bitcoin prices should help boost Strategy's earnings potential. However, its preferred-stock repurchases and reserve building could eat into those gains for MSTR holders.
"Capital structure expansion and associated dilution temper the per-share benefit," the analysts wrote in Thursday's report.
Strategy shares fell roughly 2.5% to $150, leaving them down nearly 5% year to date. The stock has nevertheless recovered from late June through mid-August, when it struggled to break above $100.
TD Cowen's target implies roughly 73% upside from its current price.
More bitcoin against competing claims
Buying more bitcoin doesn't necessarily translate into larger gains for Strategy shareholders, the analysts said. Investors also need to account for the company's debt and preferred shares, including STRC, STRF and STRD, whose holders have claims ahead of common MSTR shareholders.
After factoring those in, bitcoin ownership per MSTR share has been "less robust," TD Cowen said.
Strategy is using some of the money it raises to build cash reserves and support its suite of preferred shares, rather than immediately buying bitcoin. That could help attract investors and fund future purchases, but leaves less money to buy bitcoin today.
Strategy's valuation has recovered to roughly one times net asset value after falling as low as 0.63 in June, according to Saylor Tracker. Its bitcoin holdings, now at an even 848,000 BTC, carry roughly $4.5 billion in unrealized profits.
Brighter bitcoin projections
TD Cowen's updated model puts bitcoin near $109,000 at the end of 2026, and $280,000 by 2029.
That outlook is more bullish than QCP Capital's fourth-quarter base case of $80,000 to $90,000.
Bitcoin was trading near $81,300 on Thursday and remains down 9% year-to-date despite its recent recovery.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
BUZZ - Crescent Energy shares fall as it raises 1.1 billions in equity to acquire Devon
October 9 - Crescent Energy (CRGY.N) shares fell 1% to $12.88 in premarket trading on Friday after the company priced and completed a $1 billion follow-on offering related to an acquisition. The Houston, Texas-based shale oil and gas producer announced late Thursday that it would issue 80 million shares at $12.50 each, representing a 3.9% discount to its most recent closing price. CRGY will use the net proceeds from the offering to help fund its $4.2 billion acquisition of Devon Energy's (DVN.N) Eagle Ford oil and gas assets. A KKR (KKR.N) affiliate, which owns about 7.9% of CRGY, will subscribe to 40 million new shares. JPMorgan, KKR Capital Markets, Raymond James, Evercore, and Wells Fargo Securities will act as joint book-running managers for the offering. CRGY has approximately 330.4 million shares outstanding, with a market capitalization of $4.3 billion. The stock closed down 3.4% on Thursday, narrowing its year-to-date gain to 55%. According to data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), 13 out of 16 analysts rate the stock as "strong buy" or "buy," 2 rate it "hold" and 1 recommends "sell," with a median price target of $18.50. DVN's shares were down 1.4% in premarket trading at $48.22. DVN rose 2.2% on Thursday, bringing its cumulative gain in 2026 to about 34%. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters has automated the translation of its reports into several other languages. Since automated translation may contain errors or lack necessary context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation texts and provides them solely for reader convenience. Reuters accepts no liability for any damage or loss caused by the use of automated translation.)
BUZZ - Reports of iPhone production cuts send Apple shares lower
October 9 – According to Nikkei Asia (link), Apple has asked its suppliers to cut production of the new iPhone 18 Pro model due to weak demand, resulting in Apple (AAPL.O) shares falling 1.8% in premarket trading to $334.21. The report states that, against the backdrop of soaring memory chip costs and rising prices, the component orders for October have been reduced by at least 15% compared to initial requirements. Apple has not yet responded to a Reuters request for comment. The current stock price is about 1% lower than the all-time intraday high of $345.34 reached on September 22. According to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the average rating from 43 analysts covering the stock is "Buy," with a median target price of $330. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters provides automated translations of its report into several other languages. As automated translations may contain errors or lack the required context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of the automated translation and provides it solely for reader convenience. Reuters accepts no liability for any damage or loss resulting from use of the automated translation function.)
Citi maintains a “Neutral” rating on DocuSign (DOCU.O): IAM platform migration shows initial effectiveness, double-digit growth still needs "validation"
Citi published a research report maintaining a "Neutral" rating on the e-signature and agreement cloud platform DocuSign, with a target price of $72.
Market Chatter: Mastercard CEO Says Cross-Border Payments Is Currently Stablecoin's Best Use Case
07:14 AM EDT, 10/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Mastercard (MA) Chief Executive Officer Michael Miebach said that cross-border payments currently present the best use case for stablecoins, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing an interview. Mastercard is interested in stablecoins for moving money rather than as an investment, Miebach said, according to the report. The company is an investor in a new firm called Open Standard, which recently issued a US dollar-pegged stablecoin, the report added. (Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)
Crypto prices
More
