Goldman Sachs: Remain optimistic about the outlook of the refining industry; Valero Energy (VLO.US), Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US), HF Sinclair (DINO.US) are top picks

Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) has issued a warning that the world’s most important bond market remains volatile due to high oil prices, inflation concerns, and the US’s massive public debt. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury is at risk of reaching 6% for the first time since 2000. Pimco's Chief Investment Officer, Dan Ivascyn, stated that after several weeks of heavy sell-offs in the $32 trillion US Treasury market, investors such as hedge funds may be forced to close losing bond positions, making a significant further rise in the 10-year Treasury yield from its current level of 5.29% a “possible scenario.” In recent weeks, other investors have issued similar warnings: a “vicious cycle” is forming in the US Treasury market. Successive waves of sell-offs are pushing yields to certain levels, which in turn is prompting other market participants like Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to also sell off bonds.

(1) On Friday, the euro is heading for its fifth consecutive weekly decline. However, as the French bond market stabilizes and falling US Treasury yields temper the dollar’s rally, the sustained selling pressure on the euro is beginning to show signs of easing. (2) On Monday, the euro briefly fell to 1.1161 against the US dollar, hitting a 17-month low before rebounding; this week it remains down 0.1%, with a cumulative loss of over 3% over the past five weeks. (3) Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX in Brisbane, said: "I think the current market move now looks a little overdone. The euro typically only experiences two or three major swings a year, and this is one of those... but the bearish momentum is waning, so trading at current lows should be approached with particular caution." (4) Vishnu Varathan, Head of Asia Pacific Macroeconomics and Strategy at Mizuho Securities, stated that the dollar is currently “in a precarious position of dominance,” with its strength partly owing to the weak performance of both the euro and the yen.

According to information from Zhitong Finance APP, JPMorgan believes that aerospace and defense companies are about to face a challenging third-quarter earnings season. The slowing growth of air passenger traffic, uncertainties about the outlook for U.S. military spending, and persistent supply chain constraints are all weighing on investor sentiment.

Bernstein stated that the continued growth in artificial intelligence demand and the resilience of high-end smartphone demand may continue to drive revenue growth for TSMC (TSM.US). Bernstein analysts pointed out that, based on monthly revenue data, TSMC's revenue in the third quarter reached NT$1.49 trillion, 3% higher than market expectations. The firm expects TSMC's revenue this year, denominated in US dollars, to grow by 41%. Analysts said that TSMC will release its full third-quarter financial report on Thursday, and investors will focus on its 2-nanometer process capacity ramp-up, the possibility of further expansion in the US, and the outlook for 2027. Bernstein believes there is upside potential to its previous forecasts of 30% annual revenue growth for TSMC in 2027 and 2028.