French bonds experience their worst decade in over 200 years, investors brace for more turbulence

智通财经2026/10/08 10:06

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(1) France’s enormous budget deficit has pushed borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, and the significance of this turmoil extends beyond just that. (2) France’s budget deficit is expected to reach 5.4% of GDP this year, significantly higher than other EU member states and above the EU’s 3% cap—it’s been unable to balance its budget since 1974. (3) As the population ages, public finances in France, the euro area’s second-largest economy, are likely to come under further strain. (4) Large-scale protests, initiated by students demanding more investment in French high schools, have erupted since last month with unions and teachers joining in. (5) Bond traders have already priced in these factors: the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds is around 1.4 percentage points, approaching the highs reached in 2012. (6) According to institutional strategists, during last week’s turmoil the France-Germany yield spread actually widened to its highest level since records began after German reunification in 1990. (7) The strategists also found that the nominal return on French 10-year government bonds is experiencing its worst decade in 223 years; a similarly bad period occurred only when the rolling 10-year calculation still included the violent phase of the French Revolution. (8) French debt is also rising, now reaching about 3.5 trillion euros (approximately $3.9 trillion). During the 2008 global financial crisis, France’s debt-to-GDP ratio was roughly in line with Germany’s and much lower than Italy’s, but now it’s far higher than Germany’s and is closing in on Italy’s. (9) Apart from a temporary spike during the Covid-19 pandemic, Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio has remained stable for over a decade, while French bond yields are now higher than those of Germany, Italy, and Spain. (10) The French stock market is also under pressure; its benchmark index has underperformed Europe’s other key indices, rising only about 4% since the start of 2024, compared to a rise of more than 30% for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and over 50% for Germany’s DAX. (11) The combination of a fiscal deficit, political protests, and mounting debt is weighing on French assets; market participants are watching the progress of budget negotiations, statements from rating agencies, and the France-Germany yield spread.

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