BUZZ-Comment—October May Be the Month for Euro to Break Out of Its Range
路透社2026/10/08 09:31Reuters, October 8 – The EUR/USD monthly chart is currently forming two bearish signals, which may both be confirmed by the October closing price: first, a break below the lower bound of a range that has been maintained for more than a year; second, a close below the 100-month moving average. After rising from 1.0125 to 1.1830 between February 2025 and July 2025, EUR/USD consolidated sideways within a range of 1.1325 to 1.2084. Based on closing prices, the 200-month moving average (currently at 1.1825) constituted most of the upper resistance for this range, while the 100-month moving average (currently at 1.1194) provided support. Dragged down by fiscal concerns, the pair dropped from slightly above 1.1700 in August to a low of 1.1161 in October, with the euro hovering near a 17-month low. Key drivers include mounting fiscal and political risks in the Eurozone, rising global bond yields, and a resilient dollar supported by high energy prices and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Confirmation signals: The month has only just begun, and the trend remains uncertain; the spot price is currently almost exactly at the 100-month moving average (100-MMA). If the monthly closing price falls below 1.1325, it would confirm a range break; a close below 1.1194 would confirm the second signal. If both occur, deeper support levels could be tested before year-end. Key levels: Fibonacci retracements for the rally from 1.0125 to 1.2084 show the 38.2% retracement at 1.1336. This coincides with the range bottom, reinforcing its resistance role in any rebound. The 50% retracement is at 1.1105 and serves as the first target on the downside. The upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart is at 1.0938, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. The 61.8% retracement is at 1.0873, representing a deeper downside target. Momentum indicators: The monthly RSI is trending downward, and the 14-month momentum indicator is negative, both supporting a bearish outlook. Invalidation condition: If the exchange rate rebounds and the monthly close returns above 1.1325, the above signals will be invalidated and the pair will revert to range trading. For more, refer to FXBUZ EUR/USD Monthly Chart: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/buzz/zdvxeqlxzpx/Pasted%20image%201791448056243.png (For the convenience of non-native English readers, Reuters provides automated translations of its reports into several other languages. As automated translations may be inaccurate or lack the required context, Reuters does not guarantee their accuracy and provides them solely for readers’ convenience. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any harm or loss arising from use of the automated translation function.)
Reuters, October 8 - Two bearish signals are forming on the monthly chart of EUR/USD, and the October closing price may confirm both signals: firstly, breaking below the lower bound of the range that lasted for over a year, and secondly, a closing price falling below the 100-month moving average.
Price range. From February 2025 to July 2025, EUR/USD rose from 1.0125 to 1.1830, then consolidated sideways in the range between 1.1325 and 1.2084. Based on closing prices, the 200-month moving average (currently located at 1.1825) constituted most of the resistance in this range, while the 100-month moving average (currently at 1.1194) provided support.
Breakout. Dragged down by fiscal concerns, this currency pair dropped from just above 1.1700 in August to the October low at 1.1161, with the euro hovering near a 17-month low. Major drivers include rising fiscal and political risks in the eurozone, higher global bond yields, and a strong US dollar supported by high energy prices and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.
Confirmation signals. The month has just begun and the trend remains unclear: the spot price is almost exactly at the 100-month moving average (100-MMA). If the monthly closing price falls below 1.1325, it will confirm the range breakout; if it closes below 1.1194, the second signal will be confirmed. If both occur simultaneously, deeper support levels may be tested before the end of the year.
Key levels. Fibonacci retracement levels for the rise from 1.0125 to 1.2084:
The 38.2% retracement is at 1.1336. This level coincides with the range bottom, reinforcing its resistance in any rebound.
The 50% retracement is at 1.1105, which is the first downside target.
The upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart is at 1.0938, between the 50% and 61.8% levels.
The 61.8% retracement is at 1.0873, marking a deeper target.
Momentum indicators. The monthly RSI is in a downtrend, and the 14-month momentum indicator shows negative readings, both supporting a bearish outlook.
Invalidation condition: If the price rebounds and the monthly close returns above 1.1325, the above signals will be invalidated and the currency pair will once again oscillate within the range.
For more content, please click FXBUZ
(For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters provides automated translations of its reports into several other languages. As automated translation may contain inaccuracies or omit necessary context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation and provides it only for reader convenience. Reuters accepts no liability for any damage or loss arising from the use of automated translation features.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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