The US dollar remains near an 18-month high as Federal Reserve meeting minutes highlight inflation risks.

智通财经2026/10/08 07:36

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1. On Thursday, the US dollar steadied near an 18-month high amid quiet trading in the Asian session. Previously released minutes from the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee signaled a hawkish stance, indicating that policymakers see inflation as the greatest risk to their economic outlook. 2. The dollar index remained stable near 102.30, rising 0.3% on Wednesday and still staying close to its highest levels since April 9, 2025. Federal Reserve policymakers unanimously voted to raise rates by 25 basis points at the September 15-16 meeting, but Wednesday's minutes revealed divisions among officials regarding the rationale for the hike. 3. Analysts at Westpac wrote that the minutes reinforced the hawkish tone accompanying the September rate increase, with the majority of participants still viewing further policy tightening as appropriate, and nearly all participants seeing inflation risks skewed to the upside during the meeting. 4. The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 4.4 basis points to 5.329%. Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group commented that continued selling of US Treasuries is becoming an increasingly important driver in global markets. Should long-term Treasury yields rise further, market focus could shift to a comprehensive tightening of US financial conditions and whether policymakers begin to show greater concern over the state of the Treasury market. 5. However, the minutes did not alter market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates unchanged at the October meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows that federal funds futures pricing now indicates an 81.7% probability that the Fed will keep rates steady in October, slightly up from 80.1% the previous day.

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1. On Thursday, the US dollar remained near an 18-month high, with quiet trading during the Asian session. The recently released minutes of the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee signaled a hawkish tone, showing that policymakers consider inflation the biggest risk facing their economic outlook.2. The US Dollar Index held steady around 102.30, rising 0.3% on Wednesday and still staying close to the highest point since April 9, 2025. Federal Reserve policymakers unanimously voted for a 25 basis point rate hike during the September 15–16 meeting, but the minutes released on Wednesday showed there were disagreements among officials regarding the reasons for the hike.3. Westpac analysts wrote that the meeting minutes reinforced the hawkish tone accompanying the September rate hike, with most participants still believing further policy tightening is appropriate. Almost all attendees during the meeting considered inflation risks to be tilted to the upside.4. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4.4 basis points to 5.329%. Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said that the ongoing sell-off in US Treasuries is becoming an increasingly important driver in global markets. If long-term Treasury yields rise further, the market focus could shift to the overall tightening of US financial conditions and whether policymakers begin to show more concern about the state of the US Treasury market.5. However, the meeting minutes did not alter market expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at the October meeting. CME FedWatch Tool shows that federal funds futures pricing indicates an 81.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October, slightly higher than the previous day's 80.1%.

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