Middle Eastern oil flow restored to about 80% of pre-war levels; Shell CEO Sawan says energy security is the cornerstone of national security.

According to reports, the Zhijie Finance APP has learned that Shell (SHEL.US) CEO Wael Sawan stated on Tuesday that Middle Eastern oil flows have recovered to about 80% of pre-war levels, confirming the resilience of countries in the region in maintaining their commitments to the global market supply.

Although several banks and shipping analysis institutions also believe that Middle Eastern oil flows are approaching pre-conflict levels, Sawan’s latest comments provide one of the most authoritative assessments so far for outsiders to gauge the region’s export recovery progress.

According to data from vessel tracking agency Kpler, in September, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran exported an average total of nearly 16.33 million barrels of oil per day, about 3.2 million barrels less than the approximately 19.51 million barrels per day before the conflict broke out in February this year, restoring to about 80% of pre-war levels. The crude oil exported by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries via the Strait of Hormuz was estimated to reach nearly 9.72 million barrels per day, and this figure does not include vessels that turned off their automatic identification systems to evade detection.

JPMorgan’s assessment is even more optimistic. The bank’s commodity analysts estimate that the daily transportation of Middle Eastern crude oil in September reached about 17.5 million barrels, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels, while the daily export of refined oils such as diesel and gasoline was about 3 million barrels, or 58% of pre-war levels. The JPMorgan team stated in its report: “The arteries of Middle Eastern oil exports are flowing again,” which is a “quite substantial recovery” for a region still in a state of war.

“People are once again recognizing that without energy security, there is no national security,” Sawan said at the London Energy Intelligence Forum. “Without a solid energy strategy as support, there can be no industrial strategy or economic strategy.”

However, Sawan also warned that the longer the war continues, the harder it becomes for the market to continue absorbing supply disruptions; although oil flows have rebounded, they have not yet returned to normal levels. Were it not for declining demand from China and production increases in other regions, the supply crunch would be even more severe.

“We may have buffered the worst impacts of the crisis, but this approach cannot continue indefinitely, or else more supply disruptions will occur,” Sawan said.