The Pound climbs against the Japanese Yen as the BoJ gives no hike signal
210.00 has capped GBP/JPY three times since September 24, give or take a few pips, the latest on Tuesday. The cross trades just under it, in the upper part of a band that has contained it since early September.
The Pound gained as Treasury yields eased, while the Yen stayed flat because the Bank of Japan (BoJ) offered no fresh signal on October. BoJ Governor Ueda said the bank intends to keep lifting rates, which futures have translated as later rather than sooner.
The BoE and the BoJ could both hike this autumn and leave the gap unchanged
The UK's Bank Rate is 3.75% and the BoJ's rate is 1.25%, so holding Pounds instead of Yen earns 2.50 points a year before any move in the exchange rate. Futures price a Bank of England (BoE) hike on November 5 as likely and an October BoJ hike as unlikely, which points to a wider gap by mid-November. The gap is exactly twice the BoJ's whole rate.
Tokyo's Yen buying is aimed at the Dollar and lands on the Pound as well
Japan started buying Yen on July 30 with USD/JPY just under 164.00, and GBP/JPY traded through a range of more than 6.00 that day. That single session covered more ground than the cross has since early September. USD/JPY trades about six yen below that level, so the cross is a long way from the last trigger but not from the next warning.
Japan's August pay data is due at 23:30 GMT on Tuesday, and BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli speaks on Thursday at 13:00 GMT, the two scheduled events on either side of the cross. A slower Japanese pay figure and a firmer Lombardelli would both point the same way, toward a wider gap.
Levels at the top of GBP/JPY's range
Resistance: 210.00 has capped three sessions since September 24, including Tuesday. Above it, the September 18 spike topped out just above 211.00, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits near 211.50.
Support: Tuesday's low, just above 208.50, is the first floor. 207.00 is the base of the range, with the September 30 low just under it.
Bias: Buyers hold the edge above 208.50 on a daily closing basis, aiming at 211.00 and then 211.50. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is near 77 and still rising, so a pause at 210.00 before a break would fit the call. A daily close below 207.50 ends it.
GBP/JPY daily chart
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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