US-India trade negotiations reach a stalemate, Indian Finance Minister: “The talks have reached a plateau,” with extremely limited room for concessions

Officials from the US and India have sent signals one after another that the bilateral trade agreement negotiations have reached an impasse, and the difficulty of reaching a deal is rising.

India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated on Monday that negotiations have “plateaued” and there is extremely limited room for further concessions from either side. Previously, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said last Friday the talks were in the “final stage,” but an agreement was not “imminent.”

This stalemate directly impacts the market as the forward-looking timeline for a US-India trade deal is once again clouded by uncertainty. Stakeholders in industries related to tariff concessions and cross-border trade investors need to reassess their expectations.

In addition, potential tariff threats related to Russian energy imports are further complicating the negotiations.

Sitharaman said at the Munich Security Conference on Monday that the negotiation process has been “tough and rigorous,” both sides have now reached a “plateau,” and “either granting or demanding more may prove extremely challenging.” She added, “If there is still operational space, both sides will try to utilize it.”

US Trade Representative Greer offered a relatively optimistic outlook last Friday. He stated that both sides have identified all the “sticking points,” are working to resolve them one by one, and described negotiations as entering the “final sprint phase.”

However, last week, India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal held talks with Greer on the sidelines of the G20 Trade Ministers’ Meeting. While they described the meeting as “productive,” neither side announced any substantive progress.

The complexity of the talks is largely due to new US legislation, which authorizes President Trump to impose up to 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil and gas. India is a key importer of Russian energy.

The Indian side has issued a warning, stating that such measures could not only jeopardize US-India relations but also disrupt global energy markets.

In the past 18 months, US-India ties have already come under strain as a result. Trump initially imposed punitive tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, then later reversed them, and this back-and-forth has eroded bilateral trust.

Meanwhile, friction at the political level between the two countries continues to grow. Trump has repeatedly asserted that he facilitated the May 2025 ceasefire in the brief armed conflict between India and Pakistan, but New Delhi has consistently denied this claim.

Last week, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi held their first phone call since June this year, covering topics such as trade, energy, defense, and critical minerals. However, observers are cautious about whether this conversation will substantively advance the negotiations.

India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar offered a broader critique of the trajectory of US foreign policy at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday.

He stated that the defining feature of the current international order is America’s “fundamental repositioning,” adding that the US has “chosen to become a more selectively isolationist major power.”