Euro Drops to 17-Month Low: French Political and Economic Concerns Persist, Spain May Hold Early Elections

(1) The President of the German Bundesbank and member of the ECB Governing Council, Joachim Nagel, stated that the rising levels of government debt provide further justification for central banks to increase their gold holdings. (2) On Monday, he said that the recent rise in global government bond yields has once again enhanced the relative attractiveness of debt securities. Meanwhile, increasing debt levels have heightened market concerns over the credit risk associated with these assets; in addition, geopolitical risks may continue to influence reserve management decisions. (3) Nagel said there are still ample reasons for central banks to further diversify into gold. (4) Germany holds the world’s second-largest gold reserves, but its holdings have remained broadly stable in recent years, while other monetary policy institutions have significantly increased their purchases.

(1) On October 5, it was reported that LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have continued the rebound trend since September, as gas-producing countries are working to restore exports to customers facing supply shortages. Tracking data from Bloomberg and Kpler indicates that at least three LNG carriers departed the Strait of Hormuz since last weekend. (2) The volume of LNG exports from the Strait in September reached a new high since the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February, but it still remains more than 75% lower than pre-war levels. The market is continuously monitoring LNG shipping data from the strait to evaluate whether the supply shortage is improving. (3) Last month’s natural gas supply shortfalls pushed Eurasian gas prices to their highest level since the end of 2022. If export volumes continue to recover, this is expected to ease upward price pressure ahead of the northern hemisphere's winter heating season. (4) However, shipping risks in the strait remain elevated. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported on October 4 that it received information about a tanker being attacked by an unidentified object in the Strait of Hormuz.

(1) According to a report by shipping data analysis firm Kpler, crude oil outflows from the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels. Affected by this news, international crude oil prices declined in early trading. Brent crude oil remains above $100, quoted at $101.20 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is at $89.73 per barrel. Both major benchmarks actually recorded gains compared to last Friday’s closing prices, indicating that some traders are waiting for solid evidence of shipping improvements. (2) Preliminary data from Kpler show that from September 27 to 29, the daily crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz ranged between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels, roughly double that of a month ago. Despite ongoing attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and oil tankers in the strait, crude oil transportation volumes have still recovered. (3) Kpler previously disclosed that shipping flow through the strait was still below the ten-day moving average, which had caused concerns about supply among energy market participants. Even after tanker attack incidents, some market participants believe the actual impact of the attacks on oil prices is limited. (4) The data also show that liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz have similarly returned to pre-war levels. QatarEnergy remains under force majeure on exports, and though it is purchasing LNG spot cargoes to fulfill long-term contracts, emergency procurement alone makes it difficult for the country to restore LNG exports to pre-war levels.