CryptoQuant CEO says Bitcoin bear market ended, signals early new cycle

On-chain activity and market recovery signals

Ki identified three major on-chain signals supporting his view. Firstly, he pointed to the 365-day moving average of the Profit and Loss (PnL) Index, noting that while it remains relatively soft, important profitability and valuation metrics are nearing key turning points. According to Ki, this suggests the groundwork for a new growth phase is forming.

Secondly, inflows to Accumulation Addresses are rising significantly. The 30-day average for these addresses has also moved higher, indicating that fresh capital is entering the ecosystem.

Ki described the increased inflows to Accumulation Addresses as a clear sign of new buyers coming into the market, reinforcing the shift away from the earlier bearish period.

Accumulation Addresses are wallets that have never spent any received Bitcoin and have a balance above a minimum threshold. These addresses are typically used to identify investors who are consistently adding to their holdings and can signal changing sentiment among market participants.

Mini dictionary: Accumulation Address, a Bitcoin wallet controlled by a single entity, used for gradually increasing holdings, often seen as a bullish sign when balances rise steadily over time.

Thirdly, Ki examined the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. He remarked that, unlike prior cycles where MVRV hit extremely high peaks around 4 to 5 or above, the current cycle’s ratio has remained much lower. He interprets this as evidence that both euphoric highs and moments of capitulation are more muted compared to previous cycles.

Ki also addressed changes among large Bitcoin holders, noting that the selling pressure from early investors, often called OG whales, is easing. He mentioned that large futures traders have rebuilt long positions near previous market bottoms, which supports the end of bearish sentiment.

Institutional transformation of the Bitcoin market

The shift in Bitcoin’s market structure is becoming more visible, according to Ki. While ETFs are now recording improved flows, the identity of end buyers remains uncertain. For this reason, he said that monitoring custodial flows is currently more informative than tracking ETF participant data.

He emphasized that custodial flows have become a critical reference point, as they offer insight into how much institutional activity is influencing Bitcoin’s landscape, especially while ETF buyer details are limited.

CryptoQuant, the blockchain data provider headed by Ki Young Ju, supplies on-chain analytics and metrics to institutional and retail traders worldwide. The company is recognized for its detailed reports on digital asset market trends and investor behavior.

Ki observed that Bitcoin’s market has transitioned away from dominance by retail traders and early large holders to one in which ETFs, major institutions, and professional custodians take on greater influence. He attributed this change to the maturing landscape, shifting regulation, and macroeconomic factors.

In previous bull runs, retail sentiment and actions from “OG whales” had an outsized impact on price trends. Ki now believes a broader and more diversified investor base is shaping the current cycle.

He concluded that three focal questions remain for market watchers: who is driving new purchases, who has stopped selling, and whether the influx of fresh capital will persist as the new cycle unfolds.