Euro option sentiment turns bearish, with pessimism reaching a new phase high

⑴ The three-month EUR/USD option has fallen to its most pessimistic level since June 2024, reflecting a clear weakening of market expectations for the euro's medium-term trend. ⑵ This shift corresponds with multiple recent pressures faced by the eurozone, including turmoil in France's bond market, rising energy costs, and concerns over economic growth. ⑶ At the same time, the US dollar remains generally strong, supported by economic data and yields, further weighing on the euro's performance. ⑷ Moving forward, attention will focus on eurozone inflation, European Central Bank policy signals, and whether France's fiscal situation can ease—factors that may influence whether option sentiment continues to deteriorate.