Japanese long-term bond yields hit multi-decade highs, signaling rising inflation

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智通财经2026/10/02 07:06

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Japanese government bond yields rose on Friday, with long-term bond yields hitting multi-decade highs, as persistent inflation signals and global bond market volatility fueled the rally.
The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield reversed earlier intraday losses and most recently rose about 0.5 basis points to around 3.1%, close to last week's 30-year high.
Data released on Friday showed that the core consumer price index in the Tokyo area in September posted its largest year-on-year increase in 10 months, highlighting mounting price pressures and providing grounds for the Bank of Japan to further raise rates.
After the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25% last month, investors are still weighing the possibility of the central bank shifting to a more precautionary tightening stance.
Current market pricing indicates the next rate hike is likely in December rather than October.
Takayuki Miyajima, senior economist at Sony Financial Group, stated that, as inflation risks from high crude oil prices and rising food costs persist, market expectations for a faster pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have not fully dissipated.
The yield on Japan's 20-year government bond rose about 1.5 basis points to around 3.955%, close to the intraday 30-year high set on Thursday.
The 30-year yield rose about 4 basis points to 4.21%, on track to set a new closing high.
The ultra-long 40-year government bond yield climbed about 5.5 basis points to 4.275%, on track for the highest closing level since May.
Short-term yields fell, leading to a steeper yield curve. The 2-year yield, which is most sensitive to the Bank of Japan's policy rate, dropped about 1.5 basis points to around 1.92%, while the 5-year yield slipped about 1.5 basis points to around 2.365%.
Overall, inflation pressures and global bond market volatility have pushed up Japan's long-end yields. The market continues to weigh the timing of rate hikes, and attention remains on future policy signals from the Bank of Japan and price trends.

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Japanese long-term bond yields hit multi-decade highs, signaling rising inflation

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