Oil prices fluctuate and edge down as the market weighs US-Iran negotiations and Gulf exports

1. During Thursday's early Asian trading session, oil prices fluctuated slightly lower. US crude is currently down 0.85%, trading around $89.65 per barrel; Brent crude is currently down 0.7%, trading around $97.36 per barrel. In the previous trading day, oil prices rose nearly 2%, and the cumulative increase in September exceeded 7%. Traders are assessing the progress of US-Iran peace talks and the outlook for Middle Eastern crude oil exports.2. On Wednesday, both major benchmark crudes rose by about $1 per barrel. In September, Brent crude posted a cumulative increase of about 14%, the largest monthly gain since July; WTI's monthly rise was about 7%.3. Toshitaka Tazawa, analyst at Fujitomi Securities, stated that although the stalemate in peace talks is keeping supply concerns alive and the market is still buying, signs of a recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports have brought selling pressure to the forefront. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia’s resumption of oil exports from Yanbu port on the Red Sea is a key factor.4. Tazawa said that if WTI is to break below the recent support level of $88 per barrel, a new catalyst, such as progress in peace talks, would be needed.5. After resuming east-west pipeline operations, Saudi Arabia restarted oil tanker loading operations at Yanbu port on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs reported that last week, oil exports from the Gulf region were estimated to have rebounded to 23.3 million barrels per day, equivalent to the average level for 2025, with September’s export volume doubling from previous levels.6. According to two sources familiar with the matter, OPEC+ oil-producing countries may keep the November crude oil production target unchanged at Sunday’s meeting.7. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that for the week ending September 25, US crude inventories increased by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels, while analysts had previously expected a decrease of 264,000 barrels. However, driven by strong seasonal and global demand, fuel inventories declined sharply.