XRP is heading into Ripple’s October 1 escrow release while trading in a contested range, putting the short-term XRP price forecast in focus. Ripple trades near $1.53 on September 30, flat in the last 24 hours.
The key question is not just how many tokens unlock, but how many actually reach the market, and whether XRP can reclaim resistance at $1.60–$1.70.
Ripple is set to release up to 1 billion XRP, worth roughly $1.5 billion at current prices. That is a gross unlock, not a confirmed sale. Ripple may redistribute the tokens or return a large share to escrow, as it often does.
The unlock alone will not decide the price path. Bitcoin’s direction and Ripple’s follow-up disclosures matter too. Technically, the question is whether support holds before the market tests the resistance above.
Bull, Base or Bear: What Is the XRP Price Forecast for October?
The daily chart shows XRP stuck below a ceiling it has failed to break since August. Spikes toward $1.66–$1.70 in late August and September were both sold off quickly. Above that, the next major resistance sits near $1.76.
On the downside, XRP is holding just above support near $1.49–$1.50. Below that, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have converged near $1.37, with a deeper floor around $1.26.
- Bull case: A sustained daily close above $1.60–$1.70 would improve the structure. FXEmpire has cited $1.80 as a first target, with $2.10 possible if momentum holds.
- Base case: XRP consolidates between $1.49 and $1.70 while traders watch how much of the unlock is redistributed.
- Bear case: A break below $1.49 could expose the moving averages near $1.37, then $1.26.
For any XRP price forecast this week, follow-through matters more than the unlock headline. For a broader look at the event and the $1.70 ceiling, see this XRP rebound and unlock analysis.
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XRP’s setup offers potential upside if support holds, but the release adds a near-term supply variable, and no breakout is confirmed. That leaves traders weighing a defined technical trigger against uncertainty about how much unlocked XRP ultimately reaches exchanges.
