Saudi Arabia is expected to raise November crude oil prices for Asia, with Arab Light reaching a premium of up to $3 per barrel.

(1) Driven by supply disruptions, the Middle East spot crude oil market has strengthened, and Saudi Arabia is expected to raise the official selling price (OSP) of crude oil for Asian customers in November. (2) Four refinery sources expect Saudi Arabia’s flagship Arab Light crude oil November OSP to command a premium as high as $3 per barrel over the Oman and Dubai crude average, about $5 higher than the October level. (3) Another source expects the OSP to remain unchanged. (4) The market’s expectation of a rise is mainly due to increased supply risks in the Middle East. (5) The escalation of tensions between the US and Iran once pushed up the spot premium for Dubai and Oman crude oil, which rose to the highest level since the end of March in September. (6) Although the resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has eased some supply concerns, the spot price spread remains significantly higher than in August.