Canadian Dollar Under Pressure as Weak Data Casts Doubt on Bank of Canada Rate Hike Bets, Rosenberg Research Says

09:50 AM EDT, 09/28/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Renewed trade uncertainty with the United States and a string of weaker Canadian economic data, including Friday's 1.5% month-over-month decline in preliminary wholesale trade in August, are weighing on the loonie and pushing USD/CAD back toward CA$1.42, a level last seen in early July, according to Rosenberg Research. The move stands out because markets still expect several Bank of Canada rate hikes in the short term, while investors in the currency market are becoming less convinced that those hikes will materialize, wrote Rosenberg Research in the Monday note. Recent data from the National Payroll Institute also suggest that household finances remain strained, with 28% of working Canadians reportedly living paycheck to paycheck and 44% saying they are experiencing financial stress, added Rosenberg. Against this backdrop, the central bank's room for further rate hikes appears increasingly limited, especially given the latest energy-price shock, said Rosenberg.