Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden says he is watching energy prices closely

1. Analysis: Middle Eastern crude oil shipments have returned to near pre-conflict levels. Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline has recovered half of its capacity, and the US plans to release 40 millions barrels from its strategic reserves, significantly easing supply concerns. However, the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations remains unresolved, and geopolitical risk premiums may continue to be volatile. EIA data show an unexpected increase of 922,000 barrels in crude inventories, but distillate inventories fell sharply by 2.25 millions barrels and are about 14% below the five-year average, indicating structural divergence of “crude oil surplus and fuel shortage.” Oil prices are consolidating around the $90 pivot, and may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term. 2. Focus: Middle East geopolitical matters, OPEC+ statements, G7 reserve releases, and inventory changes. 3. Resistance: 92.02; 93.67; 96.54. 4. Support: 88.12; 87.30; 85.12.

The China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing announced today (the 5th) the September China Commodity Price Index. According to the index's performance, with the arrival of the traditional peak season for production and construction, accelerated launches of major projects, and continuous improvement in manufacturing production and market demand, the prosperity level of the commodity market has further increased, laying a solid foundation for stable economic operation in the fourth quarter. The September China Commodity Price Index stood at 137.6 points, up 4.1% month-on-month and 22.9% year-on-year. Out of the 50 key commodities monitored by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, 38 saw month-on-month price increases in September. Among them, methanol, ethylene glycol, and coke recorded the largest gains, rising 39.5%, 24.8%, and 20.4% month-on-month respectively. By industry, driven by international crude oil price increases, tight supply of certain products, and rising production costs, the energy and chemical price indices surged sharply, rising 14.8% and 13.7% month-on-month, respectively. With the advent of the traditional peak season for production and construction, accelerated industrial transformation and upgrades, and improvements in demand for manufacturing and construction, the price indices for nonferrous metals, ferrous metals, and minerals also increased month-on-month. (CCTV)

(1) Two strategists from the research department of OCBC Group stated in a report that the lower-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report may provide some "short-term relief" for Asian currencies. (2) The strategists noted that this report "somewhat reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to further tighten policy." (3) However, they indicated that "they remain cautious about extrapolating this to a broad rally in Asian foreign exchange markets." (4) The strategists also pointed out that long-term US Treasury yields remain high, while oil prices are still elevated, making oil-importing Asian currencies—such as the Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso, and Thai baht—relatively more vulnerable. (5) The US dollar was little changed against the Philippine peso, quoted at 62.486 pesos; it rose 0.1% against the Thai baht, quoted at 33.56 baht.

(1) Shipping data released on Monday shows that, despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East crude oil exports exceeded pre-war levels on four out of the last seven days of September. (2) Preliminary data from ship tracking company Kpler indicates that crude oil exports in the region surpassed pre-war levels on September 24 and from September 27 to 29, rising to 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day. (3) Before the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran broke out—that is, from March 2025 to February of this year—average exports were 18 million barrels per day. (4) Data shows that as of October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude oil exports was 18.5 million barrels per day. (5) This data covers shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, terminal exports, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. (6) Kpler data shows that in the week ending September 30, the average total transport volume of crude oil, oil products, chemicals, and non-gaseous liquids was 22.4 million barrels per day. (7) In September, the number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers passing through the Strait of Hormuz increased, reaching the highest monthly level since February. (8) The above data does not include vessels that turned off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid monitoring when passing through the strait.