Silver refinement has been delayed for months, revealing physical supply bottlenecks.
智通财经2026/09/28 10:06- The CEO of Scottsdale Mint stated that silver is piling up at refineries, with many materials requiring about 3 to 4 months depending on the type, while supplies of finished refined metals in the U.S. remain sufficient.
- He noted that banks have consistently shifted mined materials to refineries in countries friendly to the U.S., where backlogs have now reached about a year. He described this as a delay in material processing while inventories of finished metals remain available.
- He attributed last year's large inflow of silver into the U.S. to tariff concerns, which has made domestic supplies relatively more abundant than in certain overseas markets. Metals will flow to where they are treated best—banks and traders can subsequently ship metal to markets offering higher physical premiums, and as long as trading volume is large enough, an extra 10 or 20 cents per ounce will justify the transportation.
- He said this flow is still ongoing but seems to have slowed as the U.S. market approaches greater balance, though he did not specify the current destinations or tonnage of outflows.
- When asked whether the government is buying physical silver for reserves, he pointed to the U.S.’s previous strategic silver stockpile, the government’s listing of silver as a critical mineral, domestic dependence on imports, and a program he referred to as Project Vault. He believes the government can obtain material through banks without announcing every transaction. He suspects official silver buying may be happening but did not identify any specific government purchases or reserve levels in the interview; his case for reserves is based on policy inference and historical practices.
- He believes the current bottleneck is in refining, and over the longer term, mine supply will be harder to expand because investment in exploration and development has been limited for years, and permitting cycles are lengthy and risky.
- He also explained a “gold math” approach, which calculates a balanced gold price by comparing U.S. external debt with official gold holdings, arriving at the Fair Sinclair figure—a gold price of 35,000—regarding this as a valuation for crisis conditions rather than a price target for the next month. He noted that even if only partially correct, holders would still benefit.
- From a market perspective, refinery backlogs and regional inventory mismatches could amplify silver price volatility. It will be important to monitor developments in tariff policy, the movement of inventories between London and New York, and changes in physical premiums.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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