Morgan Stanley turns bullish on the US dollar: abandons weak outlook, expects Dollar Index to rise to 104 by mid-2027

RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas stated: "A 'low hiring, low layoffs' U.S. job market remains our baseline view, and we expect the pace of hiring to stay sluggish going forward. The minor increase in the unemployment rate was mainly caused by statistically insignificant noise, and at present, describing the U.S. labor market as 'full employment' remains most appropriate. The weak pace of hiring, along with fluctuations in the domestic labor force data, should support members within the Federal Reserve who advocate maintaining the federal funds rate unchanged at the upcoming October meeting. The September data suggest that the risk of a second round of inflation triggered by wage increases is very small or even non-existent. In fact, employment is simply not a concern for the Fed’s policy objectives at this time. Our baseline judgement for the direction of monetary policy remains: no rate hike in October, a 25-basis-point hike in December, followed by another 25-basis-point hike in March 2027."