Canadian Retail Sales Weaken in July as Toronto Slump Masks Underlying Resilience, National Bank Says

11:08 AM EDT, 09/24/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Toronto accounted for much of the 0.7% monthly decline in Canadian retail sales in July, while the broader picture remained relatively resilient, National Bank of Canada said in a Thursday note. Toronto, which is Canada's biggest city and accounts for roughly 17% of national retail sales, saw sales plunge 4.7% monthly in July after a 4.3% surge in June, subtracting 0.8 percentage point from the national result, wrote National Bank after data from Statistics Canada. Excluding Toronto, national retail sales would have edged up by around 0.1% on the month. The weakness coincided with the end of Toronto's FIFA World Cup run, with the city hosting five of its six soccer matches in June and its final game on July 2, said the bank. Vancouver, the other host city, also saw sales decline 1.6%, while Montreal recorded a 1.3% increase. Supporting the World Cup "hangover" explanation, StatsCan's preliminary estimate points to a 1.3% monthly rebound in retail sales in August, added National Bank. However, rising gasoline prices in August suggest that some of the rebound may be price-driven rather than reflect stronger underlying consumer spending, said the bank.