Canada's Jobs Market Enters Trade Downturn From Firmer Ground, CIBC Says

08:10 AM EDT, 09/24/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada-United States trade tensions are likely to weigh on Canadian fourth-quarter growth, with sluggish growth potentially extending into 2027 if tariffs remain in place or additional measures are introduced, according to CIBC Economics in a Thursday note. The Canadian labor market, however, is entering this period in better shape than the headline figures suggest, wrote CIBC in the note. Paid employment accounted for 63% of job gains over the past year, while self-employment remains nearly 500,000 below pre-COVID levels, said the bank. Part-time work has also been subdued, making up just 17% of recent job gains, while hours worked have risen 1.4% annually, outpacing the 1.0% increase in employment. While trade tensions with the US will challenge employment growth ahead, these underlying trends should help cushion the impact, added the bank. The outlook is unlikely to prompt the Bank of Canada to raise rates in the near term, particularly if trade tensions persist, according to CIBC.