Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0534 GMT - It is not impossible to get through the coming months without another significant move higher in long-end yields, but the balance of probabilities suggests there is at least one more leg of long-end weakness still to play out, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Michiel Tukker say in a note. "In an extreme scenario, this could take U.S. 10-year yields into the 5.25% to 5.5% range," say Garvey, regional head of research for the Americas and Tukker, senior U.K. and eurozone rates strategist. The U.S. 10-year took note of the better-than-expected U.S. purchasing managers data, and shot back above 5%, even breaching 5.1%, they say. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.14% on Wednesday, an intraday level last seen in July 2007. It last trades at 5.115%, up 0.2 basis points, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0521 GMT - Goldman Sachs Asset Management still does not expect a sustained hiking cycle by the Federal Reserve, it says in a note. "We believe that tariff and energy-related price pressures may fade, the economy shows little sign of overheating, and inflation expectations remain anchored," it says. The dot plot--policymakers' interest-rate forecasts--at the Fed's meeting last week suggests one more hike this year. Money markets are pricing in 37 basis points of Fed rate hikes at the remaining two meetings of the year, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0519 GMT - Singapore is on track to hit at least 5% GDP growth for the third consecutive year, ANZ Research's Khoon Goh says in a report. The economy expanded at a much stronger-than-expected rate of 6.1% on year in 1H. The city-state is benefiting from strong demand for semiconductors and other electronic products amid the artificial intelligence investment boom. Electronics exports grew around 132% in August. While this growth rate cannot continue for too long, electronics exports will continue to be strong for the rest of 2026, Goh says. "This will help the robust growth in the manufacturing sector to continue," he adds. ANZ expects 2026 GDP growth for Singapore to be 5.2%, slightly higher than 2025's 5.0% expansion.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0516 GMT - Germany's Ifo business survey and France's business and consumer confidence surveys will provide a cross-check for markets on the signals of firmer growth momentum and more intense price pressures on flash PMIs, Daiwa Capital Markets analysts say. French, German and eurozone PMI data, published on Wednesday, came out stronger than expected by analysts, prompting eurozone government bond yields to rise. These results "infer a strong likelihood that the national surveys will also point to firmer growth," Daiwa analysts say. "But to the extent that the Ifo and INSEE surveys were less downcast than the equivalent PMIs over recent months, we might expect smaller increases in the headline business climate indices." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0513 GMT - The Federal Reserve's 12-0 vote in support of the 25-basis-point rate hike last week "should perhaps be followed by a pause next month," First Abu Dhabi Bank's Simon Ballard says in a note. "Yes, the unanimous decision to hike this month sends a clear message of 'more tightening to come'," the chief economist says. However, First Abu Dhabi Bank believes that a pause at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in October would convey the subliminal message that, while the Fed is committed to bringing inflation back toward target, it is not intending to embark on a predetermined tightening cycle, Ballard says. Money markets are pricing a 71% probability of a 25bp hike in October, according to LSEG.(emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0509 GMT - The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates twice more this year before an extended pause in 2027, says PGIM's Robert Sockin in a note. The revised language in the Fed's latest statement highlighted elevated economic uncertainty due to geopolitical risks, the economist says. He flags risk of further monetary-policy tightening beyond the two expected rate hikes, noting that the economy has become progressively less sensitive to interest rates and the Fed might need more hikes to cool inflation. This could result in more than 75 bps in cumulative rate hikes and aligns with an increased probability of economic recession, which PGIM places at 20%. Higher recession probability could also be attributed to the potential for a correction in artificial-intelligence-related activity, he adds. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 24, 2026 01:34 ET (05:34 GMT)