Canada's Population Growth Seen Near 0.5% in 2027 Amid Immigration Tightening, BMO Says

12:23 PM EDT, 09/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's population increased by a "modest" 0.5% year-over-year in the second quarter as of July 1, supported by upward revisions due to longer work and study permit extensions and improved counting of non-permanent residents, according to BMO Capital Markets in a Wednesday note. The April 1 population estimate has been revised upward by just over 300,000 compared with previous figures, according to data from Statistics Canada released on Wednesday. Despite these adjustments, the overall trend of a notable slowdown persists, with growth expected to remain between 0.3% and 0.5% through 2027, eventually settling below 1%, said the bank. This slowdown is primarily driven by ongoing federal immigration policy tightening, as detailed in the 2026-28 government immigration plan, added BMO. Net flows of non-permanent residents remain negative, with a seasonally adjusted outflow of over 40,000 in the quarter, totaling 155,000 over the past year -- down from over 400,000 according to previous estimates before the revision. Canada's birth rate remains stable at around 38,000 net births per year, but declining fertility and aging populations may lead to negative net births by 2028, said the bank. Population growth is set to remain modest through 2027, with revised figures confirming that Canada isn't shrinking but experiencing very slow growth, added BMO. This subdued increase is affecting housing, consumer spending and short-term economic prospects.