Oil tops $100, Treasuries tag 5%, rate cuts are off the table. Warsh has three questions left tonight: hike 25, hold, or go more hawkish?

A study shows that federal incentives for film and television production will bring $249.1 billion in revenue to the U.S. economy by 2035 and add 143,500 full-time jobs. The Motion Picture Association has been working with Hollywood unions to launch a campaign for national incentives to better compete with markets such as the United Kingdom and Australia.

The Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates tonight, but the key issue is "what will be said after the hike." Citi characterizes this move as a "fine-tuning" adjustment, suggesting there is no inevitable future rate hike, yet warns that if Chairman Powell does not provide clear forward guidance, it will trigger significant market volatility. Goldman Sachs bluntly stated that there is insufficient economic foundation for this rate hike, with inflation being merely a one-off factor, and expects this to be a "signal-less rate hike."

JPMorgan believes that open-source models are not a threat, regulatory disruptions are only short-term, and cloud vendors’ leverage remains low—the fundamentals of computing power investment have not changed. It forecasts that the capital expenditure of the seven major tech giants will soar from $443 billion in 2025 to $1.577 trillion in 2027, with semiconductor equipment becoming the core bottleneck of the supply chain and a new round of price increases expected in wafer foundry and advanced packaging.