Natural gas: European prices stay elevated – ING

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that European Natural Gas prices at TTF remain well above EUR80/MWh as Middle East tensions curb hopes for increased LNG flows from the Persian Gulf. They stress that tight global LNG balances, below-average EU storage around 68%, and challenges in attracting spot cargoes leave Europe struggling to reach its 75% storage target before winter.

TTF supported by tight LNG balance

"European natural gas prices remain well supported, with TTF trading well above EUR80/MWh. Escalation in the Middle East is deflating hopes of any imminent pick-up in LNG flows from the Persian Gulf."

"This leaves the global LNG market tight and vulnerable as we edge closer towards the northern hemisphere heating season. EU gas storage is a little over 68% full, well below the seasonal 5-year average of 84%."

"Moves in the JKM-TTF spread suggest that Europe should be pulling in spot cargoes. Despite this, the region will struggle to hit its lower storage target of 75% ahead of winter."