A Chicago Fed paper says the Fed dot plot being 25 basis points higher only drives a 5 basis point move in OIS.

“The Fed's mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos: The Chicago Fed has released an interesting paper on the Fed dot plot, showing that when the median SEP forecast for the federal funds rate is 25 basis points higher than market expectations, the market-implied rate (OIS forward) only changes by about 5 basis points on the day. “Part of the market adjustment is consistent with the public's understanding of the SEP dot plot, namely that these charts are conditional assessments rather than firm commitments, and there is a considerable amount of uncertainty embedded within them.”