International oil price surge hits Argentina as expectations for gas station price cuts fall through

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智通财经2026/09/13 01:11

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Due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices have surged recently, making any possibility of price reductions at Argentine gas stations increasingly remote. On Thursday, Brent crude futures closed at USD 107.63 per barrel, the highest level since mid-May. Although there was a slight pullback on Friday, since bottoming out in early August, crude oil prices have risen by more than 30%. Ongoing mutual attacks between the US and Iran in and around the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the Houthi occupation of Yemen's Mocha Port, continue to intensify concerns in the market about supply disruptions.
S&P Global Energy Analytics believes that, with the outlook for resolving the conflict dimming and Brent crude surpassing USD 100 for the first time since July, the oil market is entering a new normal, where “the risk of disruptions is persistent rather than occasional.” OPEC has downgraded its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive downward revision.
The rise in international oil prices has had a direct impact on Argentina’s fuel market. From April to the end of June this year, YPF, which controls over 55% of the market share, implemented a price stabilization mechanism to prevent Brent price fluctuations from being immediately reflected at gas stations. Other oil companies quickly followed suit. However, this mechanism was conditional on refiners first making up for profit losses incurred during the conflict period, yet as oil prices rise again, this margin is rapidly shrinking or even disappearing.
Domestic tax burdens have also increased. According to IAG statistics, since the change of government, the fuel transfer tax has risen by 1,387%, far outpacing the 329% inflation rate over the same period, and its share of gas station prices rose from 8.9% in November 2023 to 20.1% in August 2026. Another round of tax increases that was scheduled to take effect on September 1 has been postponed by decree to October 1. This is the thirteenth such delay since 2024.
Price increases have already significantly suppressed consumption. In the first seven months of 2026, Argentina’s fuel shipments hit their lowest level in two years, totaling 5.667 billion liters from January to July—a 5.26% decrease from the same period in 2023. Premium gasoline saw the largest drop in sales, down 7.3%. Fuel shipments in July alone fell by 6.4% year-on-year. All 24 regions nationwide recorded gasoline sales lower than 2023 levels, with Misiones Province seeing a decrease of 32.48%.
IAG attributes the sharp drop in sales in certain regions to a border effect—demand has flowed outward due to lower fuel prices in neighboring countries, while the declines were smallest in Buenos Aires and Neuquén. As long as there are no signs of a resolution to the conflict, any predictions for falling gas station prices in Argentina remain uncertain.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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International oil price surge hits Argentina as expectations for gas station price cuts fall through

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