US-Iran naval conflict escalates with intensified Houthi offensive; WTI crude surges over 6% in a single day, breaking $100, Brent crude nears $110

1. On Thursday, international oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude futures rising by $6.42, a 6.34% increase, settling at $107.63 per barrel, and reaching an intraday high of $109 per barrel. US crude futures climbed by $6.43, a 6.69% gain, to $102.48 per barrel, breaking above the $100 level for the first time since May, and hitting an intraday high of $104.44 per barrel. Both major benchmarks touched their highest levels since May 19 and recorded the largest single-day increase in nearly two months.2. The immediate trigger for this round of the price surge was a sharp escalation in attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, Iran stated that after the United States sank five Iranian oil tankers, the country attacked 10 vessels near the strait. Meanwhile, Houthi forces allied with Iran seized control of Yemen’s Mocha port on Thursday, posing a new threat to shipping in the Red Sea. Analysts pointed out that attacks by Yemen on Saudi energy facilities introduce new risks to the market; the threat is no longer limited to a single shipping chokepoint but may now spread to export routes in the region, oil production facilities, and other energy infrastructure.3. US President Trump warned that the United States might strike Ghawar Mountain near Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility and stated that the conflict could last until after the midterm elections in November. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said it would intensify its response to any further attacks. Analysts noted that whether this rally can be sustained will depend on major Asian countries—ING pointed out that Asian powers have increased crude oil purchases in recent weeks, boosting the spot market. A sustained rise in purchases could amplify the impact of supply disruptions; if imports drop back, the rally may be capped.4. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, US crude oil inventories decreased by 391,000 barrels last week to 424.1 million barrels, a drop less than analysts’ expectations of 1.55 million barrels. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its monthly report, downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive downward revision.