MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) stock declined Thursday alongside falling digital asset prices and broader market weakness, with the Nasdaq down 1.14% and the S&P 500 shedding 0.54%.
Bitcoin fell 2% to $77,000 as Brent crude climbed past $102 a barrel and crude oil topped $97, hitting May-level highs amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Iran signaled readiness for escalation, while President Trump predicted the war would extend past the November midterm elections.
A Company Betting Big on a Short Squeeze
Thursday’s pullback follows a very different session just two days earlier. MARA stock jumped 4.60% to $11.83 on Tuesday even as Bitcoin itself slipped about 0.9%, a divergence that traders have flagged as significant.
According to one technical analysis, roughly 26.3% of MARA’s outstanding shares are currently sold short, with some estimates putting short interest at 42% of the floating stock. A wave of forced short covering hit the stock last Friday, though most short positions reportedly remain open.
The same analysis pointed to MARA reclaiming a technical level near $10.88, alongside the previous quarter’s value area low, without a major rejection, a setup seen as opening the door toward $13.50-$14.25 if the breakout holds.
A stronger move, contingent on continued Bitcoin strength, could extend toward $15.85, according to the analysis, though a squeeze of that scale wasn’t expected in the immediate short term.
What the Bitcoin Treasury Is Actually Worth
At Bitcoin’s September 8 close, MARA’s last disclosed coin count of 35,577 BTC (as of June 30) was worth roughly $2.79 billion, about 61% of the company’s $4.57 billion equity value at the time.
Additionally, 9,270 Bitcoin, 26% of the June total, were loaned or pledged, and on August 4 the company pledged another 18,750 Bitcoin, nearly 53% of that coin count, as collateral for two financing facilities tied partly to its pending Long Ridge acquisition.
Mining Economics Remain Under Pressure
MARA’s second quarter was difficult despite higher output. The company mined 2,422 Bitcoin, up 3% year-over-year and yet revenue fell 27% to $174.9 million, with a $611.3 million net loss that included a $343.0 million unrealized Bitcoin mark-to-market loss.
Purchased energy cost ran $38,690 per Bitcoin at owned sites, leaving a gross spread of roughly $39,749 per coin against Thursday’s lower Bitcoin price, before labor, depreciation, financing and other costs are factored in.
