EIA expects Middle East oil production to rebound, with Brent crude averaging $74 per barrel in 2027

EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook report states that Middle East oil production is expected to rise in the coming months, mainly due to a gradual increase in oil transport flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the use of alternative export routes outside the region. However, EIA assumes that restrictions on Middle East oil exports will remain in place until the end of this year, so the region's crude oil production is expected to stay below pre-conflict averages through the second quarter of 2027. EIA forecasts that Brent crude spot prices will average around $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026, and as oil production increases and inventories recover in 2027, Brent prices are expected to gradually drop to an average of $74 per barrel.