The rapid decline in oil prices in the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitical risks are reshaping the global energy landscape

智通财经2026/09/09 10:01

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According to the latest shipping data, only 6 cargo vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, a significant decrease from the previous value of 9 vessels and below the recent 10-day average of about 12 vessels. This data does not include ships that have concealed their tracks by shutting off their positioning systems.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway at the southern end of the Persian Gulf, saw a daily average of about 125 large commercial vessels passing through before the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February. It carries nearly 20% of the world's daily supply of crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Since the U.S. reimposed a blockade in mid-July, Iran's crude oil exports have effectively stalled.
On Tuesday, geopolitical tensions escalated significantly as the Yemeni Houthi forces launched attacks on multiple cities in Saudi Arabia, U.S. forces struck several Iranian oil tankers, and Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in Jordan. The combination of these attacks and rising concerns over energy supply disruptions pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel.
Institutional reports show that U.S. forces have rendered a total of five Iran-linked oil tankers inoperative near the Gulf of Oman and Iran’s Kharg Island. During the same period, vessel traffic through the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait was 25 ships, slightly below the 10-day average of 27 ships, including several Suezmax and Aframax oil tankers.
Current strait passage data reflects the ongoing intensification of geopolitical risk premiums. Market fears of supply disruption are dominating short-term trends. Going forward, close attention must be paid to whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can stabilize, as well as to the pace of strategic reserve responses by major consumer countries. These will be key variables in determining whether oil prices are forming a top at elevated levels.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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The rapid decline in oil prices in the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitical risks are reshaping the global energy landscape

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