Cryptoverse Founder Says Bitcoin Faces a ‘65% Chance’ of Lower Lows as $53,000 Realized Price Acts as Key Test

Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has not yet reached its cycle bottom. During a recent video interview, Cowen stated that “I would say it’s probably 65% chance the low occurs in the future and 35% chance it’s behind us.” His view keeps a bear market thesis active even after Bitcoin rallied roughly 40% off its summer low to trade near $78,300.

Cowen noted that past Bitcoin price bounces in 2018 and 2022 showed similar gains before Bitcoin fell to new lows. Assuming the Bitcoin pattern breaks this time, it would mean repeating mistakes made in prior market cycles. To confirm a bottom, he looks at Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,000, which represents the average cost basis of all coins on the network.

Bitcoin’s Historical Market Trends Point to Late-Year Lows

Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle pattern where market bottoms usually form in the fourth quarter. Every past mid-term bear market saw BTC’s price drop below the network’s realized price level. Cowen noted that a price drop in October would keep this historical pattern on track.

However, clearing October without making a new Bitcoin low would start shifting the market odds back toward buyers. Cowen explained that time-based pressure on Bitcoin presents a bigger risk than any single price point. He expects market headwinds over the next month before more sellers flip to a positive outlook.

Dollar-Cost Averaging Works Better Than Timing Lows on Bitcoin

If Bitcoin holds its ground and sellers give up, Cowen plans to drop his negative market view. He expects to turn positive heading into 2027 regardless of how late 2026 ends for Bitcoin. Rather than trying to guess the exact lowest price, he noted that buying small amounts over time works better for most investors.

For now, he treats $53,000 as the key BTC price line to watch. Until Bitcoin tests that average cost level, he keeps his focus on potential downside risks.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $78,355.