Natural Gas: Risk premium sustained on Gulf disruptions – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Florence Schmit highlights that TTF Natural Gas remains supported by low European storage and disrupted Gulf LNG flows. The absence of meaningful U.S.-Iran progress keeps a structural risk premium in prices, with 2026 TTF seen averaging €60/MWh in Q4. For 2027, the base case is €42/MWh, but infrastructure damage could push TTF into a €50–60/MWh range.

Hormuz risks keep TTF supported

"For gas markets, the key issue is therefore not whether an occasional vessel can pass through Hormuz, but whether negotiations can produce a stable framework that restores Qatari LNG exports on a sustained basis."

"As long as there are no meaningful U.S.-Iran negotiations, there will be no meaningful surge in LNG flows out of the Gulf."

"The stop-start pattern of cargoes will continue to leave Europe competing for marginal Atlantic supply at a time when storage remains low and winter demand is approaching."

"That keeps European natural gas prices elevated: temporary progress on any type of corridor through Hormuz can trigger short-lived sell-offs, but only a credible political agreement that restores shipping confidence can remove the structural risk premium from TTF."

"Our €42/MWh forecast for 2027 therefore remains the base case, while an infrastructure-damage scenario that delays the recovery in flows would make TTF more likely to trade in the €50–60/MWh range through much of next year."