Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted by 65%, and Goldman Sachs warns that refined oil products may face greater impacts than crude oil.

(1) Goldman Sachs executives stated on Tuesday that the flow of refined oil products through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to about 35% of pre-conflict levels, while crude oil flow is at around 70% of pre-war levels, indicating that Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt energy supply. (2) The Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs pointed out that the supply shock has a greater impact on the refined oil market than crude oil, especially in heavy products such as diesel, though no specific quantitative estimate was provided. (3) Ship tracking data shows that last year, around 2.2 million barrels of refined oil and approximately 14.95 million barrels of crude oil per day were shipped from the Middle East through the Strait. The current decline in flow indicates that the global supply and demand structure for oil products is undergoing significant adjustment. (4) The decline in refined oil flow far exceeds that of crude oil, reflecting a more direct impact on the refining and transportation chains, with supply gaps in products such as diesel and jet fuel between regions facing repricing pressure. (5) Attention will continue to focus on the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz and inventory changes in major consuming countries; if low flow conditions persist, refining spreads for oil products may remain elevated, and the structural divergence in the energy market will further intensify.