Bitcoin Faces Fed Decision and US Inflation Data Test This Week

Bitcoin faces several key macro events this week. The US August PPI and CPI will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively, and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. CME FedWatch data shows the market currently expects a 58.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%. Meanwhile, Japan’s record-breaking exchange rate intervention and potential US Treasury bond selling are also in focus. Japan’s foreign exchange reserves have declined by about $7.957 billion since the end of July, and the market believes Japan may be selling US Treasuries to fund intervention in support of the yen. Polymarket data shows the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points in September is now 98%. Changes in the yen and in carry trades could further impact global liquidity and the crypto market. On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates the recent BTC rise has been mainly driven by the futures market, without simultaneous confirmation from spot demand. Open interest in derivatives increased by about $2.3 billion in a single day to $27.53 billion, while spot demand remains negative, casting doubt on the sustainability of the current rally. On the technical side, BTC this week achieved its first weekly close above $80,000 in several months, though strong selling pressure remains near the $80,000 mark. Meanwhile, BTC’s weekly Supertrend indicator has flashed a “Buy” signal for the first time since November 2025, a signal last seen after the bear market bottomed in early 2023.