Hot Topics Analysis: Why Haven’t Oil Prices Surpassed $100 Despite Disrupted Gulf Exports? Multiple Buffer Mechanisms Curb Price Surge

1. Despite the recent escalation of U.S.-Iran conflicts causing disruptions to crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Brent crude prices have remained below $100 per barrel this month. In the week before the escalation, daily shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz once rebounded to 8-9 million barrels, but then dropped below 2 million barrels, with the moving daily average stabilizing around 4-5 million barrels. Industry views hold that this flow keeps the “reasonable” level of Brent oil prices near $95.2. Gulf oil producers have alleviated supply gaps through alternative routes and transportation methods. Saudi Aramco resumed shipping operations at Ras Tanura port in August, and Egypt's Sidi Kerir port exports doubled from June levels to 2.139 million barrels per day. Iraq’s exports recovered to about 2.34 million barrels per day in August, the UAE maintained around 2.9 million barrels per day, and Kuwait recovered to about 1 million barrels per day. At the same time, non-OPEC oil-producing countries are expected to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day this year, partially offsetting the supply shortfall.3. Destruction of demand is also significant, with global fuel demand decreasing by about 3.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter, with over half from major Asian countries. These countries’ seaborne crude oil imports fell from over 11 million barrels per day in February to 7 million barrels per day in July and August, and their large strategic reserves have also provided a buffer for the market.4. The physical market presents a different picture—premiums on Dubai and Oman crude oil for November loadings have rebounded to April levels, Oman futures settled at $104.54 per barrel on Monday, and the diesel market faces a severe shortage. Several banks have raised their Brent oil price forecasts, with Morgan Stanley projecting an average price of $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter.